CGS Research Seminar: Xiangwen Fu - Modeling the Impacts of Demand Drivers on Future Building Energy Demand in Chinese Cities

Chinese urban buildings are responsible for over 10% of China’s energy use and CO2 emissions. Reducing emissions from urban buildings will hence be crucial to meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Future building energy use in Chinese cities will be deeply influenced by changes of various demand drivers, such as a warming climate, a shrinking population, continued urbanization and increasing floor area due to income growth. In addition, policies on building energy efficiency and compact urban development will also greatly affect building energy demand. However, these drivers and their impacts on the evolution of future Chinese urban building energy use have not been sufficiently examined, especially at the city level. In this study, we evaluate the implications of future climate, demographic and socioeconomic changes for building heating and cooling energy demand in 336 Chinese cities from 2020 to 2060. We develop a bottom-up approach to examine urban building energy demand under various possible futures by combining a building stock turnover model and a building energy simulation model. We explore the roles of potential building energy efficiency and compact urban development policies in reducing building energy use. Furthermore, we evaluate how inter-city heterogeneities in the above demand drivers affect city-level building energy demand and policy priorities to reduce building energy consumption.