Research from the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) sheds light on how the June 2025 Twelve-Day war may have shaped Iranian attitudes toward security, sanctions and foreign policy. At a March 5 forum, Director Nancy Gallagher presented findings from the center’s latest survey and discussed their implications for the ongoing war in Iran.
Iranian Public Opinion Soon After the Twelve-Day War is part of a CISSM research project that has conducted in-depth surveys in Iran on nuclear issues, regional security, economics and domestic politics since 2014. The most recent survey findings are based on telephone interviews conducted in September and October 2025 with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 respondents across Iran with a margin of error of ±3.1 percent.
Gallagher explained that this CISSM project aims to improve international policy debates by providing systematic evidence on how Iranian citizens view major security issues and policy tools used by outside governments.
“Policymakers, activists and journalists outside Iran often make generalizations about what the Iranian public wants,” Gallagher said. “In my experience, those claims often say more about the preferences of the person making them than about measurable public opinion in Iran.”
The survey results suggest that the June 2025 conflict produced a “rally-round-the-flag” effect. Large majorities said Iran effectively defended itself during the Twelve-Day War and expressed positive assessments of aspects of their government’s and military’s performance during the conflict.
At the same time, the survey found persistent dissatisfaction with economic conditions. About seven in ten respondents described the overall economic situation as bad, and more respondents attributed economic challenges to domestic mismanagement and corruption than to international sanctions. These measures were largely unchanged from the previous year.
The findings also indicate that security attitudes hardened after the conflict. Support for Iran’s missile program reached a record high, and for the first time, a slim majority of respondents said Iran should develop a nuclear deterrent, not just a peaceful nuclear program.
Despite these shifts, the survey revealed complex and sometimes mixed views about the potential for future diplomacy. While many respondents expressed resistance to external pressure, such as sanctions or military strikes, some indicated openness to negotiations with the United States if credible assurances were provided.
Gallagher emphasized that nationally representative random sample surveys are particularly valuable in a country as large and diverse as Iran.
“It’s the best way I know to let the people of Iran speak for themselves rather than having somebody else speak for them,” she said.
The forum included remarks from journalist and political analyst Negar Mortazavi, who reflected on how the survey findings compare with conversations she has had with Iranians inside and outside the country since the recent escalation in hostilities with the United States.
Audience questions addressed the challenges of conducting surveys on sensitive political topics in authoritarian environments, including methods CISSM researchers use to minimize self-censorship, and assess the reliability of responses. Participants also discussed how public attitudes may have evolved since October 2025 with recent protests followed by much more extensive U.S. and Israeli attacks that have killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, other military and political figures and several thousand Iranian civilians so far.
The Iran Public Opinion project is part of CISSM’s ongoing research on how domestic political factors–including public opinion, elite preferences and regime dynamics–shape national policies and international outcomes. Read the full report, survey questionnaires and trend tables from the Iranian public opinion project.
