When Mexico abruptly dismantled one of the world’s most influential anti-poverty programs, the consequences were immediate and stark. Now, School of Public Policy Professor Susan W. Parker has earned first prize in the Premio Banamex de Economía, the Bank of Mexico’s prize in economics, for her co-authored working paper, “Rolling Back Progresa: School and Work After the End of a Landmark Anti-Poverty Program.” The paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, examines the educational and labor impacts of the Mexican government’s decision to end Prospera, a global model for conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs. This prestigious prize has been awarded annually since 1954 by the Bank of Mexico for work on the “analysis and solution of the economic problems of Mexico.”
Parker’s research finds that the rollback of Prospera led to sharp declines in school enrollment, particularly among high-school-aged boys, reversing some of the program’s long-standing gains in education and social mobility. “The rollback of Prospera is an exception in the world of CCTs, as most countries continue to operate their programs, and evaluations are continuing to find positive effects,” Parker said. “It was a political decision, designed to provide more resources to urban areas where individuals are more likely to vote.” The decision also came despite extensive independent evidence that the program worked, a factor Parker notes has become increasingly common as misinformation shapes public debate.
Mexico’s program, launched in 1997 as Progresa and later renamed Oportunidades and Prospera, was an international benchmark for reducing poverty through education and health investments. Parker and her co-authors, Fernanda Márquez-Padilla and Tom Vogl, analyzed the sudden 2019 rollback of Prospera and the introduction of a replacement initiative, Becas Benito Juárez. Their findings show that the transition weakened the program’s targeting and conditionality, resulting in a rapid decline in school enrollment among poor communities.
“Governments should first and foremost ‘do no harm,’” Parker emphasized. “Our findings show that, very quickly, rollback of successful programs can undo progress and do long-term damage.”
The study also emphasizes new gender dynamics in education. While earlier generations saw girls lag behind boys in school attainment, Parker points out that these patterns have reversed across much of Latin America. “Fifty years ago, there were gender differences in education favoring boys,” she explained. “These trends have now reversed in many Latin American countries including Mexico, so that girls are now achieving higher education levels, even in poorer settings. … The rollback of Prospera was exactly the wrong thing to do to combat that.”
For Parker, the Premio Banamex de Economía carries deep personal and professional meaning. “It really means a lot to me,” she said. “It’s a recognition of the importance of evidence-based policymaking and the perils of ignoring evidence in a setting where this is critical right now.”
Parker hopes the research will guide governments and development agencies as they consider future social policy decisions. “It’s a cautionary tale on the perils of substituting an unproven, untested program for a documented program that worked well,” she said. “I hope our findings will help to dissuade other countries who might consider similar changes in their conditional cash transfer programs.”
