The Carnegie Corporation of New York has awarded a $650,000 grant to the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) for a major study on the economic and social consequences of limited nuclear conflict. The grant is part of a broader funding initiative of 44 grants totaling $34.3 million by Carnegie aimed at supporting democracy, education, and international peace.
Led by Steve Fetter, a CISSM Senior Fellow and professor in the School of Public Policy, the project will use modern economic modeling to assess the impact of nuclear attacks involving 10 to 100 detonations, a scenario that has received relatively little attention in past research. Previous studies have focused on scenarios involving large-scale Cold War-era nuclear attacks or nuclear terrorism. Fetter’s research seeks to fill a gap in the literature, focusing on how even a so-called “limited” nuclear exchange could cause catastrophic disruptions to core infrastructure systems like transportation, sanitation, healthcare, and financial institutions.
“The COVID-19 pandemic and a series of natural and manmade disasters have demonstrated that modern economies with highly integrated supply chains are vulnerable to disruption,” said Fetter. “We expect that the much more significant effects of even a small number of nuclear detonations would cause enormous economic damage.”
While significant work has examined the climate effects of nuclear war, such as reductions in global temperature and agricultural output due to atmospheric soot, this project emphasizes the immediate and cascading damage to essential infrastructure and institutions. The goal is to clarify that detonating even a small number of nuclear weapons could cause “unacceptable damage” and perhaps even “assured destruction,” which are central concepts in nuclear deterrence.
This improved understanding could help shape more realistic and effective nuclear policies. By illustrating the scale of harm caused by limited use, the research may strengthen deterrence while reducing reliance on large arsenals or strategies that consider limited nuclear strikes as viable options. CISSM Director Nancy Gallagher underscored that the results of this research will have important implications for current debates about whether the United States needs more nuclear weapons than Russia and China combined to simultaneously deter both from initiating an attack and about what policy objectives are worth a heightened risk of suffering a “limited” nuclear retaliation.
The project reflects one of the University of Maryland’s broader missions: serving humanity and committing to forging a better world. The University’s strategic plan calls on the university to take on one of humanity’s grand challenges. “The possible use of nuclear weapons remains one of greatest threats to the United States and human civilization,” Fetter said. “Our research aims to better understand that threat and contribute to efforts to reduce it.”
Professor Fetter has been a faculty member at the University of Maryland since 1988 and has held numerous leadership roles, including dean of the School of Public Policy and associate provost and dean of the Graduate School. His work on nuclear policy has long focused on bridging technical research with pressing public policy questions.
