New Center for Global Sustainability report details how economy-wide climate actions in major emitting countries and globally could significantly reduce climate damaging emissions, offering insights for the 2035 national climate targets
Baku, Azerbaijan, November 13, 2024 – The Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland released a new report today outlining the global 2035 climate ambition based on bottom-up country pathways in reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the economy. With in-depth assessments of ten key emitting countries, the report, Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways, arms national governments and subnational entities with actionable climate policy recommendations. The report informs the preparation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 3.0 for 2035 under the Paris Agreement and provides subnational public and private sector leaders with recommendations for further climate action.
Released at the United Nations climate conference, COP29, the report develops plausible, high-ambition pathways for the ten major emitting countries - Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and South Africa - suggesting a potential 35% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is achievable by 2035 from the 2023 levels, compared to just 7% by 2030 under current country NDCs. The High Ambition country pathways could lead to a peak temperature of 1.7°C with median likelihood, making the return to 1.5°C still possible. Economy-wide action in the public and private sectors is essential to achieving the high ambition climate targets across countries, particularly with rapid advancements in renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies.
Among other key findings and policy recommendations in the report are:
- Key countries were categorized into three groups based on their current emissions trends, existing NDC targets, and their potential to mitigate emissions under a high ambition policy pathway, which provides the best opportunity for these nations to realistically meet Paris goals.
- By targeting oil, gas, coal, and waste sectors, global methane emissions can drop 35% from 2020 levels – which is nearly 40% of total GHG reductions between 2020-2035 if measured in methane’s 20-year global warming potential.
- Electricity generation across all sectors contributes to the largest CO2 emissions reduction potential for almost all of the analyzed countries through 2035, requiring a tenfold increase in wind and solar capacity in addition to halving unabated fossil fuel generation from 2020 levels.
- The land, waste, and transportation sectors are among the key areas subnational actors can pioneer new climate solutions while building aligned partnerships for climate action.
“The chance to reach Paris Agreement goals is not yet out of reach, especially with highly ambitious climate action from the world’s top emitters,” said Ryna Cui, lead author of the report and CGS Acting Director. “As world leaders gather in Baku to discuss the future of climate finance and action, this report offers a glimpse into the key opportunities for meaningful emissions reductions if NDCs for 2035 are set with an accelerated, all-of-society approach. That approach emphasizes the critical role of subnational actors across sectors and requires decisive and rapid action toward decarbonization.”
“Our findings and recommendations offer all COP countries the opportunity to weigh the impact of either immediate or delayed climate policy action before they set their new NDC targets,” said Christoph Bertram, co-author of the report and Associate Research Professor at the University of Maryland. “The world is at a critical juncture in the collective effort to address climate change. This report will provide guidance on the opportunities and challenges ahead.”
Future analysis from CGS will build upon the findings in this report to provide updated, detailed policy modeling, assessments of new NDC implementation, and analyses focused specifically on subnational climate action.
Read the full report here.
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About the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS):
Through world-leading research and policy engagement, the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland seeks to change the way that governments, businesses, and people see possibilities for ambitious climate action. Founded in 2016 in response to the need for research and thought leadership, analysis, and engagement to support the achievement of global climate goals, CGS established programs that advance understanding and support ambitious national and subnational climate strategies, fossil fuel phase-out, energy innovation, climate finance, and other policy priorities for the United States, China, Indonesia, India, Brazil, and other major economies. CGS works with a rich community of collaborators around the world and is housed within the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. Learn more at cgs.umd.edu.
