Trade wars lead to real wars
To me, the timing of this latest conflict between India and Pakistan feels suspicious, given larger geopolitical issues. China is feeling economically insecure owing to the Trump administration’s trade war; its status as the world’s premiere manufacturer is threatened by heavy tariffs, which have companies looking to move their operations elsewhere. China bankrolls Pakistan. And Pakistan has been accused of sponsoring terrorist groups. Instability in India would be a desirable outcome for China if it persuades some firms not to move production to India out of security concerns. If nothing else, the instability seems like a lucky coincidence for China. Unfortunately, the Trump administration is obsessed with tariffs and is ignoring how they might contribute to dangerous situations globally. Trade wars can become real wars all too easily.