Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target

Abstract: Achieving the 1.5 °C target outlined in the Paris Agreement necessitates coordinated global efforts, particularly in the form of ambitious climate pledges. While current discussions primarily focus on energy and emissions pathways, the fine-scale, location-specific consequences for agriculture, land systems and sustainability remain uncertain. Here we evaluate global land-system responses at 5-km2 resolution in pursuit of the 1.5 °C target through recent country-specific climate pledges. Contrary to previous studies predicting cropland expansion under a 1.5 °C scenario, we reveal a 12.8% reduction in cropland area when accounting for cross-sectoral impacts of climate pledges and land-use intensity. The reduction is most pronounced in South America (23.7%), with the global south comprising 81% of the countries worldwide expected to experience cropland loss. Food security in the Global South faces additional pressure due to a projected 12.6% reduction in export potential from the global north.