The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published the fourth vintage of the climate scenarios along with three accompanying documents, aimed at providing guidance on the use of these scenarios by central banks and supervisors: a revamped technical documentation; a data user guide; and a technical note on compound risks. The NGFS scenarios were developed in partnership with an academic consortium including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
In this fourth vintage, the set of climate scenarios has been updated to account for the latest GDP and population pathways and the most recent country-level climate commitments as of March 2023. The NGFS Climate Scenarios (the scenarios) have been developed to provide a common starting point for analyzing climate risks to the economy and financial system. While developed primarily for use by central banks and supervisors they may also be useful to the broader financial, academic, and corporate communities. This document provides an overview of the key transition risks, physical risks, and economic impact of climate change.