Zhao, A., K. Ordonez Olazabal, C. Squire, A. Bryant, K. O’Keefe, S. Vo, L. Hinkle, M. Faggert, D. Modi, J. Lou, R. Cui, and N. Hultman (2025). “Pathways to 2035: Expanding Non-Federal Climate Leadership in the United States.” Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland. 39 pp.
- In 2025, national and global developments have negatively impacted U.S. climate and clean energy transitions through redirections of federal funding, policies, regulations, economic uncertainties, and related challenges to subnational action and implementation. These forces create obstacles to the highest-ambition pathways envisioned previously to achieve U.S. 2035 goals.
- Nevertheless, opportunities remain to support continued U.S. action that would enable substantial reductions in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing prosperity, energy security, and public health. Under the U.S. federalist system, states, cities and other subnational governments retain significant policy authorities; industry and business actors continue to invest in clean technologies; and faster-than-expected cost reductions in clean technologies enhance the influence of market-driven forces.
- Considering these new factors, our assessment of feasibly expanded non-federal climate action combined with renewed federal engagement after 2028 indicates that the United States can still achieve up to a 56% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2035. In such scenarios, accelerated climate action from non-climate-leading states will be critical.
- Without federal re-engagement and accelerated actions from non-leading states, enhanced climate action from more ambitious regions could still reduce overall U.S. GHG emissions by 44% by 2035. Without any enhanced actions, current policies under federal and non-federal actors would result in a 35% economy-wide reduction in GHGs.
A new report from America Is All In and the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, finds that expanded subnational climate action combined with renewed federal engagement after 2028 can achieve up to a 56% reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2035 in the United States.