Harnessing the Land Sector to Achieve U.S. Climate Goals: An all-of-society approach to meeting our climate goals and bolstering the carbon sink by 2035

Kennedy, S., C. Wade, L. Ma, H. Leslie-Bole, C. Dahl, A. Favero, A. Zhao, K. Kennedy, A. Trivedi, S. Edelstein, A. Joel Canton, A. Denvir, K. Clark-Sutton, S. Wood, G. Hurtt, and N. Hultman (2024). “Harnessing the Land Sector to Achieve U.S. Climate Goals: An all-of-society approach to meeting our climate goals and bolstering the carbon sink by 2035.” Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland and America Is All In. 21 pp

• In 2021, carbon sequestration from the U.S. land use sector reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 12% of total gross emissions—754 MtCO₂e/yr—demonstrating the critical contribution and potential of the U.S. carbon sink to help meet the country’s ambitious 2030 and 2050 climate goals. 
• Yet the U.S. carbon sink is threatened by climate change, the effects of land use change, and natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Rapid, near-term actions to improve land sector practices can bolster the carbon sink—providing climate benefits alongside enhanced community resilience, food security, biodiversity, and public health.
• An all-of-society or “All-In” U.S. climate strategy will be essential to achieving our national climate goals—meaning integrated action at the federal, state, city, and business levels must prioritize the climate-smart implementation of existing policies all while setting and taking new and ambitious action. With diverse jurisdictions and stakeholders who can benefit from a mutually reinforcing and enhanced All-In approach, the U.S. land sector could realize increased emissions reductions by 2035 and contribute critically toward reaching the U.S. 2050 net zero target. 
• This multi-model analysis integrates the climate-smart implementation of key policies into economic, physical, and regional considerations, revealing how the U.S. land sector can reverse its declining carbon sink while concurrently acting as a critical component of the country’s economy-wide emissions reduction efforts.
• Implementing existing policies in the U.S. land sector, encompassing the forestry and agriculture sectors, can deliver 40% less net emissions in 2035 from 2021 levels. This is achieved by increasing the forest carbon sink by over 10 MtCO₂e and reducing emissions from agriculture by nearly 50 MtCO₂e in 2035.
• Full implementation of existing policies plus new and accelerated actions can increase emissions reductions to over 70% by 2035 from 2021 levels through enhanced carbon sequestration from forests and climate-smart livestock management. Additional investments and policies to help secure the carbon sink heading into mid-century include climate-smart tree planting, wildfire mitigation, and precision agriculture. 
• Paramount to these reductions is the addition and implementation of enhanced climate-smart, comprehensive federal legislation—such as a renewed Farm Bill.