Released at COP29, a new report from the Center for Global Sustainability outlines high-ambition pathways for major emitting countries, suggesting a potential 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared to just 7% by 2030 under current NDCs.
Check out our other research on pathways to achieving greater emissions reductions in the United States and in other major economies
Cui, R., M. Borrero, C. Bertram, J. Behrendt, A. Rader, M. George, D. Churlyaev, A. Kreis, J. Lou, A. Miller, X. Fu, T. Tibebu, K. O’Keefe, X. Li, M. Zhu, A. Zhao, C. Squire, N. Hultman, J. Snarski, & B. Buddi (2024). Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways. Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland.
Based on these assessments, the report concludes with the following key findings:
- Globally, the High Ambition country pathways can deliver a 35% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 from the 2023 level, compared to a 7% reduction in 2030 with existing country NDCs, and a 12% reduction by 2035 if countries follow the Delayed Transition pathways.
- Following the High Ambition pathways to net-zero CO2 emissions with targeted non-CO2 abatement leads to a peak temperature of 1.7°C with median likelihood; the additional CO2 emissions from High Ambition to Delayed Transition alone would increase the peak temperature to 1.8°C, even with a very optimistic post-2030 trajectory after the delay to net zero.
- Drawing down the temperature overshoot and returning to 1.5°C is a massive challenge with uncertain feasibility in both technological and geophysical aspects of negative emissions, and adding a tenth of a degree °C makes the return nearly impossible.
- Across sectors, electricity generation contributes to the largest CO2 emissions reductions for most countries through 2035, globally increasing wind and solar capacity by tenfold and more than halving unabated fossil power generation from the 2020 levels. Contributions from industry, transport, buildings, and land sectors vary across countries based on existing emissions profiles.
- Targeted methane abatement in oil and gas, coal, and waste sectors can drive down global methane emissions by 35% from 2020, which accounts for nearly 40% of total GHG reductions between 2020 and 2035 if measured in its 20-year global warming potential.
- Key emitting countries are categorized into three groups, based on current emission trends, existing targets, and the potential to mitigate under the High Ambition pathways.
- Group A countries with already decreasing emissions, existing 2030 commitments on absolute reductions from a base year and net-zero emissions by 2050 can deliver about 60 to 70% reduction in total GHG emissions from the NDC base year (or around 50% from 2023) by 2035;
- Group B countries with recent or immediate peak emissions before 2025 can deliver 30 to 40% reduction by 2035 from the peak level; and
- Group C countries with still growing emissions need to limit the growth and can deliver 10 to 20% reduction by 2035 from the estimated peak in a future year.
- Moving from the High Ambition pathways to Delayed Transition, majority (nearly 85%) of the increased cumulative emissions between 2023 and net-zero occur in Group B and Group C countries; with further delay of emissions reductions in Group B countries and emissions peak in Group C countries beyond 2030, even larger peak temperatures exceeding 1.8°C would become inevitable.
- Despite different climate governance and institutional structures across countries, subnational actors have large potential and can make important contributions to enhance and deliver national ambition. With policy authorities in key areas (such as land, waste, transportation), subnational actors can innovate and implement solutions and build broader partnerships to drive action and deliver social and economic benefits to the local communities.
The international community has an important window in which countries can advance their climate ambitions and limit global temperature rise. Over the coming months, the parties to the Paris Agreement will submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), establishing their climate targets for the years ahead. The NDC process empowers individual countries to drive their climate policies and actions forward within their own country’s conditions and priorities. At the same time, the NDC process provides a transparent platform for open assessment and discussion. While the Paris NDC cycle has proven value, national targets vary substantially in type, coverage, level of stringency, and room for uncertainty.
This new report, entitled Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways, establishes several approaches for meeting global and national climate targets. A bottom-up approach with in-depth country assessments allows a better understanding of near-term practicality, especially in the pursuit of high-ambition climate goals. The CGS analysis highlights how non-state actors can contribute to enhanced ambition and implementation across different sectors and types of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in key priority areas. In addition, non-state actors (states/provinces, cities, businesses, etc.) have demonstrated increased leadership in policy development and implementation that can advance large emissions reductions in the future.
Using an open-source, field-leading global integrated assessment model, CGS researchers examined the state of global climate action as well as the efforts of ten major GHG-emitting countries. The report lays out high-ambition, economy-wide pathways for emission reductions through 2035 and beyond, identifying policy opportunities across sectors for rapid emissions reductions and assessing aggregate global emissions and temperature outcomes.
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