Achieving a High Ambition Pathway for Canada’s 2035 NDC and 2050 Net-Zero Emissions Targets

Abstract

Canadian federal climate policy faces a critical test in the coming months with the implementation of the Building Canada Act. Against the backdrop of trade uncertainty with the United States and the drive to diversify Canada’s trading relationships, Canada's federal government will likely fast-track several major infrastructure projects that it deems to be in the “national interest.” It is unclear to what extent this new legislation will be used to prioritize projects that accelerate Canada’s clean energy transition or whether it will be utilized as justification for building new fossil-fuel infrastructure, like oil pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. Using an open-source integrated assessment model, climate-policy scenarios for Canada through 2050 are examined herein, with a focus on the tension between Climate First and Fossil First variations of a Current Policies scenario that reflects Canada’s existing federal climate policies. Additional scenarios examine how these initial three scenarios still fall short of putting Canada on a High Ambition pathway to achieve its emissions targets en route to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.