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Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources

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Graham, N. T., Iyer, G., Wild, T. B., Dolan, F., Lamontagne, J., & Calvin, K. (2023). Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources. One Earth6(9), 1235-1245.

Abstract

Traded agricultural goods redistribute water, virtually, around the world to satisfy unmet demands while limiting excess water extraction in importing regions. However, gaps remain in our understanding of how alternative international trade regimes may alter agricultural water demands, locally and virtually. Here, we explore global agricultural water savings and virtual water trade impacts of such trade regimes under reference and low-carbon scenarios using an integrated and water-constrained human-earth system model. We find that varying agricultural market integration significantly alters regional water withdrawals while substantially affecting global nonrenewable groundwater withdrawals. These results highlight the susceptibility of water resources, across regions, to varying degrees of market integration. Understanding how trade integration may evolve in the future can assist in the integrated management of water resources to allow for enhanced food security and potential amelioration of water stress.


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School Authors: Allen Fawcett, Gokul Iyer, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven J. Smith

Other Authors: Wei Peng, Susan Anenberg, John Bistline, Mark Budolfson, Sara M. Constantino, Kelly Crawford, Kenneth Davis, Peter DeCarlo, Hayden Hashimoto, Casey Helgeson, Xinyuan Huang, Klaus Keller, Harry Kennard, Robert Laumbach, Vijay S. Limaye, Erin Mayfield, James McFarland, Michelle Meyer, Paul Miller, Andrew Place, Nicholas Roy, Christine Schell, Noah Scovronick, Vivek Srikrishnan, Donna Vorhees, Yuanyu Xie

School Authors: Allen Fawcett, Gokul Iyer, Alicia Zhao

Other Authors: John Bistline, Aaron Bergman, Geoffrey Blanford, Maxwell Brown, Dallas Burtraw, Maya Domeshek, Anne Hamilton, Jesse Jenkins, Ben King, Hannah Kolus, Amanda Levin, Qian Luo, Kevin Rennert, Molly Robertson, Nicholas Roy, Ethan Russell, Daniel Shawhan, Daniel Steinberg, Anna van Brummen, Grace Van Horn, Aranya Venkatesh, John Weyant, Ryan Wiser