Zhang, H., Zhang, A., Wu, K., Cai, Y., Qiu, Y. (L.), Wang, S., Wang, W., & Zhao, Y. (2025). Unequal impacts of temperature deviations on poverty: International evidence. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 74, 970–990.
- Novel temperature deviation index quantifies global poverty effects of temperature extremes.
- One standard deviation increase predicts 3.5 percentage points decline in the poverty rate.
- Agricultural output and urbanization mediate temperature-poverty relationship.
- Projections suggest that global poverty rate may decrease to 15.66 %−16.21 % by 2060.
Abstract
Climate damages increase with the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Meanwhile, accumulation of temperature deviations also poses serious concerns because of its tremendous and divergent impacts on agricultural system, urbanization and socioeconomic conditions of the vulnerable population. We investigate how deviations from comfortable temperature ranges influence national poverty rates across 102 countries from 1987 to 2020. Using an innovative temperature deviation index and a panel dataset, we find a negative association between temperature deviation and national poverty rate, significant only in cooler regions. Agricultural output and urbanization account for 24 % and 29 % of this effect, respectively. Projections suggest the global poverty rate may decrease to 15.66 %-16.21 % by 2060, despite environmental stress. Our findings challenge the notion that climate change uniformly exacerbates poverty, highlighting the need for tailored adaptation strategies and policies that consider both risks and potential benefits of changing temperature patterns.