Tibebu, T.B., Yaguma, P., Bertram, C., George, M., O’Keefe, K., Cui, R.(2026). Decision informative and policy relevant scenario modeling for energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Progress in Energy.
Abstract: Scenario modeling in the energy sector has served as a valuable tool to inform decision making with alternative forward-looking pathways. These exercises are particularly useful for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, given the high levels of uncertainty. However, current scenario analyses for SSA often fail to connect modeling assumptions with the region’s evolving development trajectories, renewable energy and environmental goals, electricity access and demand profiles that are rooted in socio-economic and infrastructural realities, and collective governance, institutional, and financial capacities that shape the feasibility of energy transition. The perspective is intended as a practical guide to frame scenario modeling for SSA towards policy and decision relevance and feasibility. We propose four dimensions along which scenario assumptions are specified and three scenario archetypes that are relevant to current SSA policy questions. Modeling analyses for the SSA region can use this structure to tailor key analytical components and examine energy pathways under local and global uncertainties. Through this multi-faceted modeling approach, scenario analysis can be better tailored to construct plausible and regionally relevant pathways and inform decision making processes that respond to both the complex dynamics of SSA energy landscape and ongoing global shifts.