van de Ven, D. J., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A., Lamboll, R. D., Doukas, H., Giarola, S., Hawkes, A., Koasidis, K., Köberle, A.C., McJeon, H. and Perdana, S, Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Sognnaes, I., Vielle, M., & Nikas, A. (2023). A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges. Nature Climate Change, 1-9.
Abstract
The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modeled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.